* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 56 65 76 84 95 94 88 82 78 80 81 84 84 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 56 65 76 84 95 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 55 66 79 89 59 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 8 8 2 8 7 11 9 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 2 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 247 253 247 240 340 154 118 90 87 80 56 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 155 154 158 161 144 144 147 142 143 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 151 148 148 154 157 138 137 139 135 136 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 8 6 7 6 7 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 66 68 67 68 68 68 71 74 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 16 17 19 23 25 29 27 22 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 85 75 77 76 70 83 99 120 136 163 144 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 61 68 110 118 87 104 88 97 90 83 40 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 2 3 1 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 278 276 284 307 336 418 377 194 32 -62 -102 -116 -133 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.1 74.6 75.1 75.7 76.3 77.9 79.7 81.4 82.9 84.3 85.7 87.2 88.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 54 52 52 54 58 50 27 30 27 30 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 18. 15. 7. -1. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 30. 41. 49. 60. 59. 53. 47. 43. 45. 46. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 74.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 71% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 44.7% 28.9% 11.3% 10.0% 26.0% 39.4% 71.0% Logistic: 17.7% 49.5% 29.3% 12.1% 4.9% 26.9% 43.0% 55.3% Bayesian: 6.9% 34.4% 13.3% 4.1% 2.5% 25.5% 37.5% 55.1% Consensus: 11.4% 42.8% 23.8% 9.2% 5.8% 26.1% 40.0% 60.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 50 56 65 76 84 95 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 50 59 70 78 89 54 32 24 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 51 62 70 81 46 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 40 51 59 70 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT