* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 88 87 87 86 79 75 77 79 84 86 88 82 78 76 75 V (KT) LAND 95 69 51 40 34 29 29 24 27 29 33 31 36 30 26 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 95 68 50 39 34 29 32 38 45 50 51 42 44 41 39 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 15 7 7 11 16 19 26 26 27 21 20 15 17 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 1 2 -2 3 5 10 10 1 0 1 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 69 61 47 50 63 88 150 226 255 269 259 251 267 310 352 341 282 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 162 158 156 153 151 150 155 158 161 153 146 140 139 133 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 155 152 150 145 139 140 148 151 152 138 128 121 121 116 109 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 82 83 79 84 81 79 75 66 56 54 53 58 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 22 20 18 15 13 13 16 19 23 24 26 22 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 122 125 136 145 161 148 129 128 141 127 164 174 181 151 138 83 68 200 MB DIV 152 137 129 145 156 102 96 119 134 103 72 40 24 -9 -10 -19 7 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 -3 1 1 2 2 6 6 16 15 15 -1 0 8 4 LAND (KM) -22 -81 -141 -176 -140 -73 25 43 134 278 142 -12 95 25 66 140 227 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.8 19.3 21.1 23.0 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.3 84.8 85.5 86.3 87.7 88.3 87.9 86.5 84.5 82.7 81.3 80.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 6 4 7 10 12 12 9 5 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 20 7 10 32 37 38 44 81 85 97 65 37 27 38 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -20. -19. -16. -12. -12. -9. -15. -17. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -16. -20. -18. -16. -11. -9. -7. -13. -17. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 13.8 83.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.80 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.0% 8.9% 7.7% 5.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.6% 2.5% 3.0% 6.3% 3.8% 4.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 4.3% 6.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 1.9% 0.3% 5.0% Consensus: 3.0% 9.8% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 5.0% 1.6% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 69 51 40 34 29 29 24 27 29 33 31 36 30 26 24 23 18HR AGO 95 94 76 65 59 54 54 49 52 54 58 56 61 55 51 49 48 12HR AGO 95 92 91 80 74 69 69 64 67 69 73 71 76 70 66 64 63 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 74 74 69 72 74 78 76 81 75 71 69 68 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 71 66 69 71 75 73 78 72 68 66 65 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT