* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 66 63 55 47 47 43 42 40 38 35 31 29 27 26 V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 66 63 55 47 47 43 42 40 38 35 31 29 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 66 62 58 54 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 8 7 11 14 22 47 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 0 3 5 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 154 200 216 201 213 222 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 24.4 24.5 20.8 16.9 16.8 13.1 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 104 106 88 79 80 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 91 95 81 75 77 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 -55.6 -55.9 -53.9 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.0 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 56 51 51 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 42 42 41 39 35 36 46 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 91 91 123 177 243 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 101 58 56 79 99 76 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 10 -2 5 0 -24 -87 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 779 752 679 609 456 833 1443 662 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.5 39.7 41.3 42.8 46.6 50.7 54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 59.4 57.6 54.5 51.3 41.9 31.0 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 18 23 28 34 40 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -31. -34. -37. -40. -44. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -9. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -23. -23. -27. -28. -30. -32. -35. -39. -41. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.3 61.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 66 63 55 47 47 43 42 40 38 35 31 29 27 26 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 63 55 47 47 43 42 40 38 35 31 29 27 26 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 61 53 45 45 41 40 38 36 33 29 27 25 24 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 49 41 41 37 36 34 32 29 25 23 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT