* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 52 62 73 78 82 85 92 93 94 92 91 83 68 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 52 62 73 78 82 85 92 93 94 92 91 83 68 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 55 63 68 71 76 81 81 78 77 73 62 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 19 20 15 16 3 2 11 10 9 20 11 16 20 29 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -1 0 -2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 4 9 9 SHEAR DIR 262 242 235 247 248 198 195 263 285 217 199 164 113 212 197 222 237 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.0 26.4 24.2 23.9 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 129 130 132 126 119 118 119 118 115 114 120 103 102 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 107 109 112 114 108 102 101 101 99 96 97 104 92 91 71 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.1 -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 46 46 47 48 53 58 58 56 59 60 54 54 45 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 25 26 28 32 34 33 33 34 38 41 42 43 45 43 34 850 MB ENV VOR 132 139 149 144 147 152 157 151 133 114 106 123 121 124 88 123 81 200 MB DIV -6 7 16 24 30 50 50 17 28 44 81 104 39 50 109 63 22 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 1 7 17 11 2 3 5 10 6 7 9 8 28 -30 LAND (KM) 1351 1361 1372 1376 1382 1368 1334 1336 1390 1394 1255 1140 1031 883 801 619 595 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.4 27.4 28.2 29.0 30.0 31.1 32.1 33.0 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.2 55.2 55.3 55.5 56.7 58.3 59.6 60.6 61.6 62.5 63.1 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 5 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 10 15 21 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 23 22 20 14 11 4 2 5 5 2 0 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 11. 11. 12. 17. 20. 21. 20. 21. 16. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 27. 38. 43. 47. 50. 57. 58. 59. 57. 57. 49. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.7 55.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.90 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.9% 8.8% 6.2% 5.1% 8.4% 10.5% 16.1% Logistic: 2.9% 8.9% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.3% 4.9% 2.2% 1.7% 3.0% 3.7% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 52 62 73 78 82 85 92 93 94 92 91 83 68 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 48 58 69 74 78 81 88 89 90 88 87 79 64 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 50 61 66 70 73 80 81 82 80 79 71 56 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 40 51 56 60 63 70 71 72 70 69 61 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT