* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 120 119 118 115 114 109 100 89 74 63 52 53 53 53 51 V (KT) LAND 115 118 105 95 95 92 90 85 77 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 122 86 99 102 102 93 80 48 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 9 11 8 6 9 14 23 24 32 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 3 3 4 2 8 6 8 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 90 94 104 135 191 217 256 249 253 244 262 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.8 27.7 25.6 24.9 24.2 24.4 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 166 165 161 151 148 133 111 105 99 101 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 170 160 158 151 137 131 117 98 92 87 88 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.4 -49.5 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 3 6 4 5 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 73 76 75 69 63 52 49 44 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 28 27 29 31 34 35 34 32 25 21 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 97 75 68 57 26 28 15 27 44 50 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 65 50 61 47 31 44 31 47 67 42 14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -1 6 2 12 15 17 11 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 289 152 -10 -1 109 314 480 307 64 -116 -295 -429 -630 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.6 25.0 26.8 29.0 31.1 33.0 34.6 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.6 91.5 92.5 92.7 92.1 91.1 89.7 87.9 86.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 12 9 8 10 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 138 110 50 53 35 43 58 14 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 5. 1. -7. -17. -26. -37. -46. -52. -59. -62. -64. -66. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 9. 5. -4. -11. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -6. -15. -26. -41. -52. -63. -62. -62. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.2 84.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.5% 29.7% 23.3% 10.4% 9.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.5% 27.4% 20.4% 18.0% 13.9% 15.2% 6.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 34.5% 57.0% 48.0% 27.5% 10.7% 16.0% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 29.5% 38.0% 30.6% 18.6% 11.4% 13.9% 2.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/07/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 0( 31) 17( 43) 13( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 0( 7) 7( 14) 5( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 118 105 95 95 92 90 85 77 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 115 114 101 91 91 88 86 81 73 43 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 115 112 111 101 101 98 96 91 83 53 39 35 33 33 33 33 33 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 102 100 95 87 57 43 39 37 37 37 37 37 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 91 86 78 48 34 30 28 28 28 28 28 IN 6HR 115 118 109 103 100 99 97 92 84 54 40 36 34 34 34 34 34 IN 12HR 115 118 105 96 90 86 84 79 71 41 27 23 21 21 21 21 21