* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 49 47 45 45 44 45 44 44 45 48 51 54 58 60 V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 49 47 45 45 44 45 44 44 45 48 51 54 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 49 47 45 42 41 41 41 40 39 37 37 38 40 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 36 36 29 20 15 19 18 24 25 23 23 16 13 2 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -6 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 153 164 170 171 158 148 145 142 148 139 125 133 125 137 132 238 269 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 163 162 163 163 165 163 158 155 152 152 153 153 151 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 140 140 142 144 146 144 139 135 133 132 134 134 133 131 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 5 5 7 6 8 7 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 49 45 44 44 44 48 53 57 64 68 64 64 58 59 54 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 19 19 16 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 61 39 26 32 29 69 56 68 72 81 83 56 16 8 11 5 200 MB DIV 88 74 42 28 22 11 52 47 47 36 23 19 20 31 27 17 13 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 1 3 4 6 1 7 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 89 100 113 114 116 106 88 89 130 164 202 212 218 241 262 244 210 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.5 22.2 21.8 21.3 20.9 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.1 88.2 88.4 88.7 89.5 90.4 91.1 91.6 92.0 92.4 92.7 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 3 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 41 41 40 39 43 47 41 36 35 35 34 32 32 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 1. 4. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.4 88.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.5% 10.9% 7.9% 7.5% 10.7% 12.8% 15.9% Logistic: 6.1% 11.0% 11.5% 3.5% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.4% 7.6% 3.8% 2.8% 4.1% 5.0% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 50 49 47 45 45 44 45 44 44 45 48 51 54 58 60 18HR AGO 50 49 48 47 45 43 43 42 43 42 42 43 46 49 52 56 58 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 41 41 40 41 40 40 41 44 47 50 54 56 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 36 36 35 36 35 35 36 39 42 45 49 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT