* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 50 48 46 45 47 48 44 44 44 46 46 46 48 48 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 50 48 46 45 47 48 44 44 44 46 46 46 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 47 44 39 37 37 37 35 33 31 31 31 32 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 35 35 29 21 15 22 25 25 16 21 17 18 11 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 0 -5 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 170 160 167 175 173 153 146 153 167 157 153 129 137 152 168 178 290 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 163 165 163 157 153 153 153 153 151 149 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 141 141 144 145 145 138 134 134 133 133 132 131 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 6 3 6 2 8 5 11 7 11 8 700-500 MB RH 53 48 45 43 42 44 45 51 54 62 63 64 65 66 66 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 22 21 18 15 15 14 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 67 67 49 35 25 23 21 50 47 60 55 72 72 45 30 15 24 200 MB DIV 66 78 69 31 7 2 5 35 15 35 26 27 22 41 21 19 9 700-850 TADV 4 6 1 5 2 6 5 9 8 4 3 2 1 4 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 59 83 107 116 124 101 80 96 148 182 201 198 219 226 231 215 196 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.1 21.7 21.2 20.8 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.3 88.4 88.7 89.0 89.7 90.5 91.2 91.8 92.2 92.7 93.1 93.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 42 40 39 39 46 47 40 35 33 32 32 31 30 32 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -23. -26. -27. -30. -31. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.1 88.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.83 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.7% 10.4% 7.5% 0.0% 10.2% 12.0% 15.0% Logistic: 5.1% 4.7% 6.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.8% 5.6% 3.0% 0.1% 3.6% 4.2% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 50 48 46 45 47 48 44 44 44 46 46 46 48 48 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 46 44 43 45 46 42 42 42 44 44 44 46 46 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 41 40 42 43 39 39 39 41 41 41 43 43 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 36 35 37 38 34 34 34 36 36 36 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT