* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 47 45 43 43 44 46 44 43 44 48 51 53 56 58 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 47 45 43 43 44 46 44 43 44 48 51 53 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 43 41 36 33 32 33 32 32 31 33 35 38 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 26 36 35 21 17 14 23 23 21 13 16 15 13 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 -1 -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -1 -2 -6 -3 -7 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 184 169 165 168 174 156 142 139 155 158 147 133 138 130 146 148 76 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 162 162 163 162 159 155 153 153 153 153 151 148 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 140 139 141 143 143 141 136 134 134 133 133 132 129 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 7 6 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 51 46 45 43 41 45 48 53 60 67 65 69 66 69 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 21 20 17 15 13 13 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 57 57 44 24 20 15 49 46 48 55 65 78 62 51 30 34 200 MB DIV 75 69 81 53 32 19 8 40 37 10 16 37 45 38 39 55 17 700-850 TADV 12 4 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 6 2 2 1 4 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 27 63 99 110 121 119 112 122 173 205 204 214 224 213 203 203 200 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.3 22.0 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.4 20.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.4 88.5 88.7 88.9 89.6 90.5 91.4 92.0 92.4 92.9 93.3 93.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 50 46 42 40 40 38 39 43 41 36 33 32 31 31 32 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.8 88.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.0% 9.9% 7.2% 0.0% 9.8% 10.8% 15.4% Logistic: 4.6% 4.3% 5.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.5% 5.3% 3.1% 0.1% 3.4% 3.6% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 47 45 43 43 44 46 44 43 44 48 51 53 56 58 18HR AGO 45 44 46 45 43 41 41 42 44 42 41 42 46 49 51 54 56 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 36 36 37 39 37 36 37 41 44 46 49 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 31 32 34 32 31 32 36 39 41 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT