* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 110 106 99 81 67 54 42 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 110 106 99 81 67 54 42 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 112 106 98 91 76 62 51 40 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 8 15 22 23 33 30 38 41 47 44 42 34 30 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 -1 1 2 3 3 1 10 6 5 2 -2 -1 3 15 20 SHEAR DIR 136 204 249 255 256 269 258 260 250 241 242 237 232 238 249 312 306 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 26.9 26.4 26.3 25.3 25.5 24.7 24.4 24.6 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.2 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 132 126 125 115 117 108 105 107 104 105 105 104 106 108 92 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -53.2 -54.3 -53.0 -50.5 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 57 55 52 50 46 44 41 39 38 34 31 28 32 39 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 34 37 36 33 32 30 28 24 20 16 13 11 8 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 105 90 78 72 75 65 58 34 20 14 -11 -14 -22 -15 28 54 106 200 MB DIV 91 63 33 22 31 5 8 6 -9 0 -2 -19 -4 21 6 11 8 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 2 4 11 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 -23 -26 -28 LAND (KM) 1590 1598 1611 1624 1640 1672 1747 1833 1903 1940 1959 1954 1918 1843 1625 1376 1129 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.4 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.1 126.8 127.4 128.0 129.0 130.2 131.5 132.8 133.9 134.9 135.7 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 10 16 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -28. -38. -47. -55. -61. -66. -69. -72. -75. -79. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -13. -18. -24. -30. -33. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -26. -28. -28. -27. -23. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -9. -16. -34. -48. -61. -73. -85. -97.-110.-120.-127.-134.-135.-143. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.2 125.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 764.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##