* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 119 119 113 99 82 70 57 47 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 118 119 119 113 99 82 70 57 47 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 116 115 110 104 89 74 61 49 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 1 6 17 25 24 31 33 40 48 52 43 44 41 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -7 0 0 2 1 2 4 6 1 1 0 -1 -2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 66 67 94 120 257 251 274 259 262 246 248 240 244 244 237 235 295 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.2 24.4 24.7 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.1 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 138 129 122 116 114 105 108 104 106 107 105 103 105 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -52.6 -53.7 -52.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 55 53 46 42 41 40 38 38 35 37 34 37 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 37 35 36 34 33 31 29 26 22 19 17 14 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 105 110 107 94 86 74 76 61 38 31 14 0 -1 -3 24 70 132 200 MB DIV 52 71 69 40 9 12 3 16 5 -6 11 17 -9 20 4 14 11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 3 4 3 0 2 0 2 -22 -16 LAND (KM) 1524 1569 1602 1616 1634 1668 1721 1803 1911 1950 1983 1983 1929 1930 1855 1693 1591 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3 23.0 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.8 124.8 125.7 126.5 127.2 128.5 129.7 131.0 132.5 133.8 135.0 136.0 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -15. -25. -35. -44. -52. -59. -64. -66. -69. -72. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -15. -22. -28. -32. -33. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 1. 2. 1. -0. -4. -7. -10. -16. -18. -18. -19. -20. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. -2. -16. -33. -45. -57. -68. -80. -95.-106.-115.-123.-131.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 123.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 658.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.5% 18.8% 14.3% 15.0% 16.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.1% 14.0% 4.8% 5.0% 5.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##