* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 98 102 104 103 98 88 75 61 49 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 95 98 102 104 103 98 88 75 61 49 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 94 97 98 98 96 90 81 69 56 45 36 28 21 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 9 5 3 10 21 26 29 31 36 43 51 44 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -4 0 1 0 0 3 4 11 1 1 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 37 52 64 57 65 301 282 278 280 261 249 229 234 236 237 238 238 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.3 26.8 25.7 25.7 24.8 24.9 24.4 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 149 147 147 137 131 120 119 110 111 106 109 107 105 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -52.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 66 62 53 49 40 38 37 38 36 40 40 40 38 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 35 38 37 37 39 38 36 33 30 27 24 20 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 97 113 107 103 103 99 104 91 88 69 46 36 22 6 -7 -11 16 200 MB DIV 84 88 33 24 40 34 25 8 0 3 -8 4 12 -9 4 -9 13 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -9 -6 -5 1 0 4 9 12 7 1 2 -2 -2 0 10 LAND (KM) 1382 1426 1482 1536 1597 1657 1716 1781 1872 1963 1986 1986 1959 1918 1839 1679 1573 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.6 22.7 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.6 122.8 123.9 125.0 126.9 128.5 129.9 131.4 132.8 134.2 135.5 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 15 13 11 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -40. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 14. 13. 8. -2. -15. -29. -41. -53. -64. -76. -87. -93. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.9 120.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 372.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.0% 32.3% 21.9% 16.7% 12.2% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.4% 37.1% 19.9% 18.3% 13.9% 9.2% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 15.8% 9.6% 3.2% 1.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.7% 26.4% 15.0% 12.1% 9.3% 8.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##