* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 09/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 68 78 88 101 110 113 107 98 85 76 64 55 44 35 23 V (KT) LAND 50 58 68 78 88 101 110 113 107 98 85 76 64 55 44 35 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 65 73 82 97 107 109 102 89 75 62 53 45 38 31 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 11 9 12 5 2 7 13 21 17 28 34 40 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -3 2 7 0 1 0 6 2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 79 83 89 89 47 48 77 46 281 261 269 244 243 230 230 226 227 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.5 26.0 25.6 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 155 151 149 151 146 142 128 123 118 108 106 104 101 100 98 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 74 71 70 69 66 58 53 46 43 43 45 43 37 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 26 29 32 34 38 41 41 41 38 37 34 33 30 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR 70 78 93 102 95 108 110 107 105 97 78 78 78 84 82 72 75 200 MB DIV 99 102 100 99 73 80 37 48 6 15 -9 21 0 14 -4 -11 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -8 -10 -8 -2 0 2 7 1 3 9 13 6 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1028 1072 1136 1211 1299 1427 1540 1624 1666 1721 1798 1879 1902 1887 1834 1736 1655 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.0 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.5 116.0 117.4 118.8 121.5 123.9 126.0 127.7 129.2 130.7 132.0 133.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 26 18 14 16 14 12 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 25. 29. 29. 24. 21. 16. 14. 10. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 28. 38. 51. 60. 63. 57. 48. 36. 26. 14. 5. -6. -15. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 13.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 9.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -10.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 10.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.1% 69.8% 57.0% 42.1% 29.5% 25.1% 59.9% 38.9% Logistic: 16.0% 40.6% 22.2% 17.1% 9.5% 17.0% 22.3% 5.0% Bayesian: 18.9% 26.6% 22.5% 11.0% 2.6% 8.0% 2.7% 0.1% Consensus: 21.0% 45.7% 33.9% 23.4% 13.9% 16.7% 28.3% 14.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##