* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 09/30/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 67 76 89 101 108 108 104 94 83 71 59 50 38 26 V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 67 76 89 101 108 108 104 94 83 71 59 50 38 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 64 72 87 101 109 105 92 77 63 52 44 37 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 9 8 6 1 7 7 12 22 23 29 36 40 42 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -5 0 2 4 0 0 0 2 -3 -9 SHEAR DIR 55 80 95 112 76 18 94 180 229 245 256 258 245 245 234 242 238 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 26.6 26.2 25.6 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 154 154 149 150 147 144 130 125 118 108 105 104 101 102 103 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 72 71 67 70 64 57 54 48 47 44 45 43 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 21 23 26 29 33 37 39 41 39 37 35 32 31 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 76 93 99 85 104 100 88 76 67 46 63 62 70 51 48 200 MB DIV 102 108 110 96 107 65 89 101 86 50 5 -1 8 1 10 0 -26 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -6 -5 -8 -10 -5 0 2 1 10 2 9 13 15 5 -3 LAND (KM) 933 1022 1061 1119 1195 1337 1459 1569 1626 1685 1753 1837 1859 1849 1826 1785 1766 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.4 16.1 17.2 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.1 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.2 114.6 116.1 117.6 120.3 122.8 125.1 127.0 128.7 130.2 131.6 132.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 27 18 13 17 13 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -4. -9. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 25. 31. 33. 30. 27. 21. 16. 13. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 31. 44. 56. 63. 63. 59. 49. 38. 26. 14. 5. -7. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -8.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 51.7% 42.8% 29.0% 16.9% 18.5% 64.3% 55.2% Logistic: 8.2% 25.0% 17.3% 11.6% 4.2% 14.9% 18.3% 5.7% Bayesian: 8.5% 6.1% 5.7% 1.6% 0.3% 2.1% 3.2% 0.5% Consensus: 10.8% 27.6% 21.9% 14.1% 7.1% 11.8% 28.6% 20.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##