* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 40 41 43 47 49 51 49 46 44 41 39 37 34 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 40 41 43 47 49 51 49 46 44 41 39 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 29 27 24 21 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 7 5 9 8 7 5 8 14 15 15 14 15 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 3 -1 -2 0 0 2 4 4 6 5 3 8 6 SHEAR DIR 32 17 26 37 44 352 330 316 274 236 248 275 269 277 280 279 247 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.7 25.8 26.4 26.3 26.6 25.9 25.3 25.7 25.3 25.2 24.9 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 136 134 130 121 127 126 129 122 115 120 116 115 111 108 112 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 65 64 63 62 59 53 51 45 40 39 37 34 33 33 32 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 20 21 21 23 23 23 22 21 20 18 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 39 30 30 26 33 36 50 42 51 42 59 57 48 31 19 200 MB DIV 42 24 14 24 28 26 -1 -7 -2 5 -12 -8 -14 -28 -23 -7 -21 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -5 -1 2 4 3 8 5 1 5 3 2 4 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 770 826 864 899 945 1063 1178 1283 1405 1544 1689 1839 2015 2069 1871 1694 1517 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.1 117.2 118.2 119.1 120.9 122.6 124.2 125.8 127.5 129.2 130.9 132.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 5 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 9. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.8 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 17.6% 13.8% 9.9% 6.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.9% 4.9% 3.4% 2.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##