* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 78 76 76 64 48 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 78 76 76 64 48 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 80 79 76 60 42 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 28 47 54 46 44 43 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 6 8 10 -3 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 226 227 204 182 168 171 180 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 26.6 27.3 27.8 23.9 17.7 12.9 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 122 130 136 99 76 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 114 109 114 117 86 71 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.6 -49.4 -49.2 -48.7 -48.7 -49.8 -50.4 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 52 51 52 58 69 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 44 49 52 54 48 41 34 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 192 215 221 233 228 226 223 202 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 92 86 138 111 71 82 77 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 35 92 97 61 -20 -18 -27 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1317 1226 1070 897 703 376 130 19 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 32.2 33.9 35.7 37.4 40.5 43.7 47.4 51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.0 62.9 62.8 63.0 63.3 63.4 62.1 59.3 56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 17 18 17 16 19 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 3 14 39 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -12. -20. -29. -34. -37. -40. -44. -47. -49. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -5. -10. -14. -21. -25. -28. -31. -32. -33. -35. -37. -40. -42. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 10. 5. -1. -10. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -4. -4. -16. -32. -50. -65. -70. -74. -79. -84. -91. -96.-100.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.5 63.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 78 76 76 64 48 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 79 77 77 65 49 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 74 62 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 58 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT