* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172020 09/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 55 59 59 58 57 54 52 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 55 59 59 58 57 54 52 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 9 10 7 1 8 7 10 12 14 17 17 18 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 2 2 -1 2 -1 0 0 -1 0 3 4 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 35 22 35 48 49 53 15 328 341 295 285 262 260 259 255 273 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.9 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 24.7 24.6 24.6 23.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 149 148 146 137 133 123 125 124 123 121 108 108 108 99 104 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 68 66 65 60 53 54 52 49 44 40 36 34 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 18 18 19 21 21 23 26 26 27 28 28 28 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 38 47 42 39 37 26 47 42 46 54 51 69 79 78 79 200 MB DIV 47 44 49 53 42 13 26 0 -5 -5 8 -3 3 -32 -19 -11 -6 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -10 -9 -10 0 3 4 2 10 8 7 7 7 6 3 2 LAND (KM) 649 689 663 658 678 770 861 982 1089 1184 1283 1389 1494 1620 1741 1879 1985 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.2 112.2 113.3 114.4 116.7 118.7 120.4 121.9 123.4 124.8 126.2 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 15 12 9 5 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. 25. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 17. 17. 17. 15. 14. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 34. 34. 33. 33. 29. 27. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.7% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 4.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##