* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 37 35 38 41 42 44 46 49 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 37 35 38 41 42 44 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 36 34 31 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 17 15 23 31 32 27 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 313 307 297 291 296 297 285 303 308 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 137 140 136 133 132 130 130 125 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 140 136 133 129 125 123 116 113 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 64 63 62 55 55 51 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 49 58 54 43 48 55 40 18 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 22 3 -6 -1 8 12 15 59 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -1 4 6 6 1 -1 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1772 1820 1828 1802 1719 1599 1521 1471 1443 1429 1335 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.2 36.6 38.0 39.4 42.1 44.7 47.0 48.7 50.0 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 10 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 12 16 17 13 7 11 18 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -7. -10. -12. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 33.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.1% 8.7% 6.4% 5.8% 8.2% 7.4% 9.5% Logistic: 5.5% 12.3% 7.8% 3.8% 1.7% 6.3% 4.8% 5.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.6% 9.8% 6.0% 3.4% 2.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 37 35 38 41 42 44 46 49 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 35 35 36 36 36 34 37 40 41 43 45 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 32 33 33 33 31 34 37 38 40 42 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 28 31 32 34 36 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT