* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 84 79 69 45 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 84 79 69 45 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 86 81 71 51 39 33 31 33 35 35 33 31 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 37 49 46 55 52 34 21 17 23 31 48 45 47 37 27 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 0 6 5 9 1 -5 0 2 3 -3 1 -5 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 197 204 214 218 213 229 237 267 273 310 340 358 12 18 37 30 64 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.3 20.0 22.6 18.8 19.7 20.4 22.2 22.2 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.5 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 122 84 93 76 77 79 87 87 91 98 104 109 117 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 119 109 78 82 69 68 70 75 75 78 83 88 92 99 100 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -52.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 39 39 38 35 32 26 29 30 33 32 29 28 28 30 37 44 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 39 38 34 34 29 25 22 19 18 18 18 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 46 18 20 33 10 -18 -21 -22 -23 15 15 0 12 19 21 -8 -42 200 MB DIV 123 131 98 44 27 34 -17 -11 -26 -72 -70 -57 -44 -5 -11 -35 0 700-850 TADV 1 -23 -41 -38 -66 -46 -22 -9 -3 -16 -18 -11 -5 -3 1 2 12 LAND (KM) 830 791 722 617 624 901 1194 1392 1496 1612 1708 1817 1941 2064 1974 1905 1835 LAT (DEG N) 37.7 39.0 40.2 41.4 42.6 44.6 45.7 45.4 44.2 42.5 41.0 39.5 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.3 56.6 53.9 50.8 47.7 41.9 37.4 34.9 34.1 33.6 33.3 33.0 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 25 26 25 20 12 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 22 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 19 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -4. -11. -19. -30. -40. -49. -55. -60. -63. -67. -68. -68. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -19. -29. -32. -30. -27. -24. -23. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -4. -11. -18. -24. -29. -32. -33. -31. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -21. -45. -58. -69. -78. -85. -93. -99.-103.-105.-104.-105.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 37.7 59.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 644.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 3( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 84 79 69 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 80 70 46 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 71 47 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 70 46 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 47 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 57 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 84 75 69 65 52 41 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20