* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 40 39 35 32 29 26 22 17 17 17 18 21 23 25 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 40 39 35 32 29 26 22 17 17 17 18 21 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 38 37 33 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 17 18 11 7 1 6 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 1 6 6 0 4 2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 44 45 59 67 63 119 122 198 207 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.6 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 139 133 128 122 118 114 106 100 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 61 61 57 56 53 50 46 40 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 22 21 20 17 16 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 51 55 49 52 55 43 56 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 57 55 32 24 19 -9 -22 -11 -4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 -6 -9 -6 2 1 6 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 964 982 1006 1030 1059 1113 1130 1171 1243 1323 1406 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.5 21.8 21.9 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.0 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.4 126.4 127.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 391 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -9. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -23. -23. -23. -22. -19. -17. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.8 117.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 16.7% 13.2% 9.4% 6.2% 6.1% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.6% 4.4% 3.1% 2.1% 2.0% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##