* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 41 39 37 32 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 41 39 37 32 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 41 40 38 34 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 17 15 14 17 14 7 8 11 18 22 21 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -3 4 2 0 2 2 1 0 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 31 37 35 50 63 70 104 110 181 206 206 212 216 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.2 25.6 25.5 25.2 24.5 23.6 23.6 23.9 23.8 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 142 137 124 118 117 113 106 97 97 101 100 107 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 64 61 60 56 56 52 49 41 32 26 21 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 49 43 45 49 45 52 41 43 21 33 24 39 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 45 29 26 31 30 10 -18 -16 -6 1 -9 -11 -24 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 0 6 8 11 6 11 7 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 829 856 867 887 915 991 1060 1085 1125 1199 1295 1407 1555 1746 1907 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.4 117.1 117.9 118.7 120.2 121.5 122.7 123.9 125.1 126.4 127.7 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -29. -31. -32. -31. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 16.7% 13.9% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.7% 4.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##