* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 24 25 26 28 33 34 34 36 37 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 24 25 26 28 33 34 34 36 37 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 20 18 17 16 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 18 19 26 28 23 19 6 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 5 2 4 1 -1 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 295 287 280 283 303 318 342 343 268 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 129 127 128 134 140 136 140 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 113 111 108 107 114 121 118 123 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 52 51 50 43 40 39 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -46 -68 -89 -94 -109 -122 -135 -106 -75 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 5 7 14 -10 -17 -34 -42 -21 -12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 3 5 5 0 -3 -6 0 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2154 2121 2094 2075 2057 2013 1936 1803 1642 1478 1318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.7 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.1 46.7 47.3 47.7 48.1 48.7 49.4 50.5 51.9 53.4 54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 14 13 12 15 25 40 21 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 831 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.9 46.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.6% 5.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.4% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 23 24 25 24 25 26 28 33 34 34 36 37 37 39 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 24 25 24 25 26 28 33 34 34 36 37 37 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 23 22 23 24 26 31 32 32 34 35 35 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 16 17 18 20 25 26 26 28 29 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT