* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 70 72 81 89 93 97 95 91 84 74 64 56 46 35 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 70 72 81 89 93 97 95 91 84 74 64 56 46 35 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 66 70 80 89 93 91 84 74 62 50 44 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 13 6 2 1 7 7 18 30 38 39 28 27 26 29 33 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -2 -6 -3 0 7 -2 0 5 6 4 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 181 178 200 213 294 324 234 219 201 211 202 215 227 243 234 223 207 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.3 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 23.6 24.1 22.5 18.3 14.6 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 149 146 144 136 140 133 136 134 134 97 101 92 77 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 131 127 124 115 118 113 117 114 113 85 87 80 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -52.5 -53.4 -53.6 -54.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 38 38 38 38 42 45 42 42 44 40 39 40 46 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 29 28 31 33 34 39 39 39 38 35 33 32 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 42 43 36 10 19 40 38 31 37 8 -18 -25 7 -4 1 200 MB DIV 19 24 0 -6 1 10 42 54 113 88 90 26 49 36 57 61 62 700-850 TADV 14 9 12 6 2 0 4 1 -13 -27 -15 -2 21 28 28 -25 -90 LAND (KM) 1349 1334 1332 1350 1359 1152 1027 940 879 848 734 658 708 867 1081 1329 1411 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.7 29.3 29.9 30.5 31.9 33.6 35.3 36.9 38.5 40.1 41.6 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 59.1 60.3 61.4 62.5 64.1 64.3 62.8 59.8 56.3 52.7 48.9 45.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 12 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 22 20 25 17 25 12 17 17 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. 0. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 21. 29. 33. 37. 35. 31. 24. 14. 4. -4. -14. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.1 57.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.6% 11.9% 9.1% 0.0% 13.4% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 18.6% 17.6% 6.3% 2.1% 6.7% 2.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 12.2% 9.9% 5.1% 0.7% 6.7% 6.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 65 70 72 81 89 93 97 95 91 84 74 64 56 46 35 18HR AGO 60 59 62 67 69 78 86 90 94 92 88 81 71 61 53 43 32 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 63 72 80 84 88 86 82 75 65 55 47 37 26 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 61 69 73 77 75 71 64 54 44 36 26 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT