* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 37 37 36 36 34 35 38 40 43 44 48 49 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 37 37 36 36 34 35 38 40 43 44 48 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 38 37 34 32 31 31 33 36 41 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 14 17 18 31 25 21 11 5 8 12 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 3 8 4 1 0 -3 -2 0 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 304 308 295 298 284 296 307 326 3 319 308 271 272 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 126 128 129 130 127 127 133 138 137 141 139 139 142 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 115 116 114 112 106 107 113 120 119 124 121 121 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 49 50 53 53 50 45 38 37 36 38 41 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 4 -13 -7 -28 -90 -95 -110 -122 -128 -95 -82 -8 24 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 4 15 -7 -4 17 -20 -45 -46 -9 -33 -7 16 35 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 7 6 1 4 -1 -4 -1 -6 -1 -5 -1 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2156 2181 2212 2191 2144 2108 2093 2057 1962 1821 1671 1512 1367 1259 1139 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.8 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.5 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.8 44.8 45.5 46.3 47.2 47.7 48.1 49.0 50.3 51.7 53.2 54.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 6 3 3 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 5 15 17 16 14 12 12 21 40 23 31 31 25 24 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 42.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.0% 8.3% 6.4% 5.7% 8.0% 6.9% 7.8% Logistic: 3.1% 9.7% 7.0% 1.6% 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.3% 5.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 37 37 36 36 34 35 38 40 43 44 48 49 51 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 36 35 35 33 34 37 39 42 43 47 48 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 32 31 31 29 30 33 35 38 39 43 44 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 24 22 23 26 28 31 32 36 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT