* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 35 37 36 34 32 30 30 32 32 33 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 35 37 36 34 32 30 30 32 32 33 35 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 34 34 35 35 33 31 28 26 26 26 28 31 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 8 12 11 20 24 36 28 22 14 10 8 14 14 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 -1 0 5 6 3 3 1 0 1 0 -5 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 125 215 287 305 312 295 290 297 310 335 1 356 327 299 289 286 297 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 116 119 125 130 129 128 130 131 132 137 138 143 145 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 106 107 109 113 115 111 107 109 111 113 119 119 122 122 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 48 48 53 56 57 49 47 40 37 36 37 40 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 45 22 -1 -15 -36 -100 -97 -112 -110 -111 -99 -89 -80 -42 13 45 200 MB DIV 0 -6 -7 -4 1 -6 20 -31 -42 -73 -19 -24 15 -17 29 21 21 700-850 TADV 3 7 1 0 -1 10 4 7 0 -3 -7 -4 -6 -4 -6 -12 -8 LAND (KM) 2156 2147 2148 2174 2206 2176 2156 2157 2129 2066 1970 1836 1702 1604 1531 1491 1461 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.6 23.3 25.0 26.3 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.6 42.7 43.6 44.5 45.9 46.6 46.9 47.2 47.8 48.8 50.3 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 5 2 2 4 5 7 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 3 11 17 17 17 16 15 19 40 24 32 32 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 40.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 11.8% 8.0% 6.3% 0.0% 8.5% 7.6% 7.5% Logistic: 3.1% 12.3% 10.8% 3.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 8.0% 6.3% 3.1% 0.3% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 35 37 36 34 32 30 30 32 32 33 35 37 40 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 37 36 34 32 30 30 32 32 33 35 37 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 34 33 31 29 27 27 29 29 30 32 34 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 27 25 23 21 21 23 23 24 26 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT