* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 60 65 68 69 68 63 59 60 60 64 68 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 60 65 68 69 68 63 59 60 60 64 68 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 54 60 66 69 70 68 64 60 57 55 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 5 6 9 13 9 7 10 19 26 31 26 32 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -2 0 -4 -7 0 7 6 6 3 4 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 3 92 127 109 61 94 134 206 251 255 284 284 283 268 268 298 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 128 133 130 126 123 123 119 117 122 123 130 133 132 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 123 128 126 121 117 115 111 108 112 111 115 115 111 111 112 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 68 66 65 65 66 64 60 57 59 61 60 58 49 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 19 18 17 17 17 17 14 14 16 18 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 99 107 126 122 120 125 93 85 63 64 59 6 -15 -48 -14 17 33 200 MB DIV 24 15 21 16 9 -5 11 -16 3 6 9 -1 16 31 18 14 -39 700-850 TADV 4 5 6 1 0 2 4 2 12 19 30 14 25 16 -4 -20 -28 LAND (KM) 596 736 877 1023 1169 1461 1756 2005 2217 2263 2314 2435 2337 2136 2022 2018 2010 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.2 19.1 20.2 21.5 23.1 25.0 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.9 24.2 25.5 26.8 28.2 30.9 33.6 36.1 38.3 40.3 41.9 43.2 43.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 10 11 13 5 7 7 1 5 8 12 18 15 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -10. -12. -9. -7. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 33. 28. 24. 25. 25. 29. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.1 22.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.0% 11.6% 8.6% 7.9% 11.3% 12.5% 18.3% Logistic: 5.7% 30.3% 18.2% 7.1% 4.4% 13.1% 12.1% 21.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 10.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.3% 1.4% 2.3% 1.5% Consensus: 4.3% 19.1% 10.6% 5.3% 4.2% 8.6% 9.0% 13.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 45 48 54 60 65 68 69 68 63 59 60 60 64 68 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 44 50 56 61 64 65 64 59 55 56 56 60 64 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 43 49 54 57 58 57 52 48 49 49 53 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 40 45 48 49 48 43 39 40 40 44 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT