* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP152020 09/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 39 43 46 50 52 53 55 57 60 63 66 71 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 39 43 46 50 52 53 55 57 60 63 66 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 32 32 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 6 6 7 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 88 73 49 66 129 331 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 147 144 140 139 138 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 70 68 66 61 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 52 45 44 50 52 75 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 24 23 -9 0 1 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -8 -4 -2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 403 385 398 454 528 612 658 726 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.7 112.1 113.2 114.2 115.4 116.2 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 10 8 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 7 10 9 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152020 JULIO 09/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 13.5% 11.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.5% 4.3% 2.9% 0.1% 0.3% 4.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152020 JULIO 09/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##