* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 18 19 26 35 42 47 52 56 63 70 76 76 77 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 26 27 34 43 50 55 60 64 71 78 84 84 85 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 14 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 22 37 50 63 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.5 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 161 170 162 161 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 158 169 160 158 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 75 77 78 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 71 69 66 65 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 54 38 45 59 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 6 2 5 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -164 -59 47 107 94 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.5 93.7 94.8 95.9 98.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 21 22 19 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 35. 41. 46. 48. 51. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -7. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -6. 1. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 38. 45. 51. 51. 52. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 91.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.94 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 12.9% 7.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 16.3% 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.6% 8.9% 24.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% Consensus: 1.5% 10.2% 5.4% 2.8% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 26 27 34 43 50 55 60 64 71 78 84 84 85 88 18HR AGO 25 24 26 24 25 32 41 48 53 58 62 69 76 82 82 83 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 20 27 36 43 48 53 57 64 71 77 77 78 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 23 32 39 44 49 53 60 67 73 73 74 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT