* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 58 61 69 72 77 78 79 81 84 89 93 96 99 100 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 58 61 69 59 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 69 63 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 17 14 10 8 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 2 4 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 47 6 360 7 349 47 348 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.1 30.4 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 154 160 158 154 172 168 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 155 152 158 155 149 172 165 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 9 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 55 67 71 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 36 25 41 54 50 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 23 25 6 36 37 17 37 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 8 3 0 4 2 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 219 308 222 137 139 -43 -206 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.3 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.8 81.1 82.5 83.9 86.5 88.7 90.9 93.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 89 71 68 61 63 51 71 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 30. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 24. 27. 32. 33. 34. 36. 39. 44. 48. 51. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 78.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 38.8% 26.0% 17.1% 11.6% 21.4% 25.8% 37.8% Logistic: 16.2% 27.5% 22.2% 16.3% 9.1% 25.2% 33.6% 45.9% Bayesian: 5.0% 50.1% 24.0% 1.7% 1.5% 19.5% 63.4% 61.0% Consensus: 13.5% 38.8% 24.1% 11.7% 7.4% 22.0% 40.9% 48.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 58 61 69 59 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 49 53 56 64 54 33 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 56 46 25 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 46 36 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT