* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132020 08/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 38 35 31 30 32 31 29 29 29 28 29 32 34 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 38 35 31 30 32 31 29 29 29 28 29 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 39 39 37 33 29 26 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 25 31 27 27 25 18 19 17 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 5 4 3 2 5 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 71 75 73 66 72 83 85 86 100 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 148 150 145 134 128 129 127 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.2 -50.9 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 6 8 5 7 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 79 79 80 79 76 74 74 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 14 12 11 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 17 26 16 36 53 58 78 69 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 109 94 65 76 41 63 79 78 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -2 -5 -6 -8 -6 -5 -9 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 410 354 297 257 222 213 271 213 126 166 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.0 19.2 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.3 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 106.9 106.5 106.5 106.5 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.3 111.5 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 5 7 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 17 19 12 6 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 3. -0. -4. -5. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##