* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 59 67 73 78 80 74 70 69 73 74 70 54 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 54 56 64 70 75 46 33 29 28 28 33 29 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 51 54 54 58 63 68 74 47 33 29 28 28 34 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 15 12 13 5 13 15 21 22 17 25 28 42 59 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 0 1 1 3 -6 0 4 6 3 0 2 8 5 SHEAR DIR 326 335 353 3 1 359 336 314 273 272 262 292 274 252 219 215 215 SST (C) 30.1 31.3 31.0 30.5 31.2 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.7 31.5 30.6 30.2 29.4 28.0 21.7 19.8 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 174 174 173 173 172 172 172 173 174 163 142 92 85 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 174 174 173 171 166 164 172 159 155 146 131 85 79 74 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -50.5 -51.0 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -51.1 -51.4 -52.9 -52.6 -51.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 12 8 12 4 7 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 59 57 60 62 65 66 61 64 69 68 57 52 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 17 17 18 20 21 21 23 18 15 13 16 21 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -8 -19 -9 2 -6 26 -7 -37 -100 -101 -79 41 92 95 103 108 200 MB DIV 12 25 33 7 -2 -3 45 34 43 15 34 62 65 44 65 111 57 700-850 TADV -3 0 -19 -19 -14 -17 -9 -10 5 2 26 15 33 -25 -38 1 -34 LAND (KM) -6 22 46 22 18 213 412 237 56 -179 -383 -564 -598 -193 130 174 126 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.9 25.3 27.0 29.1 31.4 33.7 35.8 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.7 77.5 79.3 81.0 82.6 85.6 88.3 90.6 92.0 92.4 91.3 88.5 83.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 12 12 12 14 18 22 27 29 31 29 HEAT CONTENT 59 65 65 68 116 105 61 52 55 7 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 26. 29. 32. 30. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -5. -11. -13. -10. -4. -0. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 17. 23. 28. 30. 24. 20. 19. 23. 24. 20. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 75.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.85 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 35.1% 20.4% 12.2% 10.2% 24.6% 29.4% 37.6% Logistic: 9.8% 27.0% 17.8% 10.3% 8.2% 18.5% 29.6% 32.6% Bayesian: 2.4% 30.9% 8.7% 0.9% 0.4% 6.0% 16.5% 15.9% Consensus: 6.9% 31.0% 15.6% 7.8% 6.3% 16.4% 25.2% 28.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 54 54 56 64 70 75 46 33 29 28 28 33 29 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 52 54 62 68 73 44 31 27 26 26 31 27 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 48 50 58 64 69 40 27 23 22 22 27 23 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 42 50 56 61 32 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT