* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 53 57 63 62 60 55 55 54 55 55 58 59 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 53 57 63 62 60 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 53 57 61 63 62 58 43 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 14 18 12 24 20 27 28 25 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 -3 -2 0 2 2 -1 5 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 219 202 205 240 225 219 202 212 205 224 219 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.9 30.9 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 171 172 171 170 170 169 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 171 164 159 160 163 164 160 153 152 157 155 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 63 59 54 59 55 61 60 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 9 8 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 32 53 48 36 26 18 9 41 -2 -17 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 39 49 67 62 48 53 29 19 38 20 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 3 14 -6 21 4 13 11 1 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 239 174 85 10 51 236 434 281 201 60 -66 -150 -260 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.0 23.6 25.2 26.8 27.9 28.7 29.3 29.8 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.7 86.2 86.8 87.4 88.8 90.3 91.9 93.4 94.7 95.9 96.9 97.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 124 115 84 46 37 42 68 52 45 51 39 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 38. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 23. 22. 20. 15. 15. 14. 15. 15. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 85.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.86 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 42.8% 27.3% 12.5% 10.0% 21.3% 26.0% 31.9% Logistic: 13.9% 50.4% 32.4% 18.4% 8.8% 27.7% 24.0% 19.5% Bayesian: 4.6% 16.2% 4.7% 2.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% Consensus: 12.4% 36.5% 21.5% 11.3% 6.5% 16.6% 16.9% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 48 53 57 63 62 60 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 45 50 54 60 59 57 40 29 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 45 49 55 54 52 35 24 20 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 41 47 46 44 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT