* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 32 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 32 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 35 32 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 15 17 16 19 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 11 9 4 7 2 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 211 207 166 164 180 170 206 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.0 22.9 22.9 22.2 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 127 119 116 113 91 90 82 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 56 55 54 50 43 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 13 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 17 3 8 -2 4 6 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -2 -4 17 11 26 7 32 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -16 -12 -11 -9 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 180 246 238 248 276 419 510 574 545 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.7 28.0 28.9 29.7 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.7 115.6 116.6 117.5 119.5 121.1 122.3 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 10 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -12. -16. -17. -18. -19. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -8. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -18. -22. -28. -38. -41. -44. -47. -50. -54. -58. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.1 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##