* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 47 57 67 73 77 83 85 84 80 77 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 40 45 55 65 40 50 55 57 56 52 41 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 35 39 47 58 38 48 58 66 68 65 51 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 11 8 3 6 8 10 8 19 19 21 17 19 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 0 6 -3 3 -2 -1 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 89 87 70 68 83 78 192 271 212 240 188 202 205 217 221 234 256 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.5 29.1 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.9 31.5 32.2 32.2 32.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 164 169 169 169 172 154 172 171 171 170 169 169 168 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 159 164 163 161 172 143 169 167 162 153 157 167 168 169 168 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 7 10 9 11 10 10 7 9 6 11 8 15 700-500 MB RH 72 72 75 77 79 72 69 64 62 59 59 60 60 59 54 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 13 15 14 10 7 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 24 38 52 56 40 56 37 28 22 34 15 5 -28 -28 -32 -10 200 MB DIV 124 129 93 89 105 77 76 49 59 37 53 17 22 8 2 -4 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 1 0 2 8 6 11 13 9 6 0 3 0 16 LAND (KM) 161 49 5 18 80 152 11 -5 232 437 285 172 67 -34 -121 -209 -292 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 18.1 19.7 21.4 23.3 25.2 26.8 28.1 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.8 83.8 84.5 85.2 86.2 87.3 88.6 89.8 91.0 92.0 93.0 93.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 40 45 45 58 87 60 35 62 76 57 44 59 18 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 43. 45. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. -2. -7. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 27. 37. 43. 47. 53. 55. 54. 50. 47. 43. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 81.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.91 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 76% is 14.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 40.9% 23.5% 10.9% 8.0% 25.8% 39.5% 75.6% Logistic: 14.7% 66.9% 48.5% 41.8% 25.8% 42.3% 59.9% 62.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 27.0% 10.9% 2.2% 4.6% 11.9% 43.7% 23.3% Consensus: 8.1% 44.9% 27.6% 18.3% 12.8% 26.7% 47.7% 53.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 40 45 55 65 40 50 55 57 56 52 41 32 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 34 36 41 51 61 36 46 51 53 52 48 37 28 24 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 33 43 53 28 38 43 45 44 40 29 20 16 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 45 20 30 35 37 36 32 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT