* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 70 67 63 54 51 47 42 34 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 70 67 63 54 51 47 42 34 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 66 63 61 55 48 41 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 6 3 5 7 11 13 16 19 21 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 7 10 6 5 11 4 4 0 5 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 259 277 239 142 179 142 164 167 178 194 188 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.3 24.2 24.2 23.4 22.8 22.4 22.2 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 139 136 133 126 104 105 96 89 84 81 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 8 5 5 2 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 62 61 60 55 56 49 48 46 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 23 20 19 16 17 16 15 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 51 37 39 38 32 11 14 6 15 26 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 68 44 41 18 -4 -2 4 -16 17 14 26 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -6 -2 -2 -2 -10 -7 -5 -1 1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 91 90 106 114 129 206 238 364 445 483 495 440 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.4 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.6 29.5 30.2 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 110.9 111.5 112.1 113.5 115.2 117.0 118.7 120.2 121.1 121.6 122.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 9 7 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -28. -33. -35. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -7. -10. -11. -13. -18. -19. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -8. -12. -21. -24. -28. -33. -41. -51. -60. -61. -62. -64. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.7 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 15.1% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##