* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 104 111 114 118 115 106 93 81 70 59 48 38 29 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 97 104 111 114 118 115 106 93 81 70 59 48 38 29 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 97 102 104 107 107 104 96 87 73 58 46 36 29 23 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 7 4 4 6 1 5 10 13 18 14 19 19 22 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -5 -4 -4 -4 0 4 4 9 4 9 5 8 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 200 243 230 189 237 265 228 194 182 190 186 200 184 199 204 209 215 SST (C) 29.4 28.8 28.4 28.6 28.4 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.2 24.5 23.9 22.3 21.6 21.1 20.4 20.3 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 149 150 148 140 137 135 125 107 102 85 77 72 64 62 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 78 74 75 74 70 63 58 57 57 56 55 50 50 42 39 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 28 28 31 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 25 34 44 57 66 66 67 64 54 55 45 38 40 48 48 31 12 200 MB DIV 139 111 84 78 74 73 56 31 6 0 -2 6 9 9 -2 11 -18 700-850 TADV -8 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -4 3 -1 3 2 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 312 334 376 410 356 254 244 220 265 314 349 472 555 581 556 545 554 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.3 27.5 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.6 108.6 109.3 110.1 111.2 112.2 113.4 114.8 116.4 118.1 119.8 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 12 13 14 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -35. -40. -46. -52. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 24. 28. 25. 16. 3. -9. -20. -31. -42. -52. -61. -71. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.0 106.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.87 11.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 8.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -8.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.5% 58.1% 45.0% 35.8% 29.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.3% 32.5% 23.2% 16.4% 14.5% 6.6% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 39.1% 35.2% 35.7% 26.0% 4.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 38.6% 41.9% 34.6% 26.1% 16.2% 9.3% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##