* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KYLE AL122020 08/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 48 45 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 47 48 45 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 43 38 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 34 42 44 50 48 39 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 12 13 11 8 8 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 250 253 268 264 263 280 287 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 26.9 28.2 28.9 26.2 25.2 22.2 23.6 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 126 142 153 118 109 91 99 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 108 121 130 101 94 81 87 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.8 -53.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.0 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 49 45 43 46 46 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 22 21 22 21 21 19 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 31 34 35 53 16 10 85 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 55 74 30 57 9 -12 0 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 28 32 16 5 -24 -52 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 373 385 425 413 444 497 428 667 1050 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.1 39.7 40.4 41.1 42.3 43.0 43.3 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 67.0 64.9 62.8 60.6 56.4 51.6 46.1 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 17 18 17 17 19 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 2 14 64 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -5. -14. -24. -31. -39. -46. -53. -62. -68. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 5. -3. -15. -33. -38. -44. -48. -54. -62. -66. -68. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.4 69.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122020 KYLE 08/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 47 48 45 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 43 44 41 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 35 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT