* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 33 33 34 33 34 33 35 37 43 47 50 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 33 33 34 33 34 33 35 37 43 47 50 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 31 30 28 25 23 21 21 23 26 30 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 12 21 21 23 30 24 28 13 12 5 7 17 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 3 4 3 4 2 6 1 3 -4 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 273 256 271 273 260 271 269 289 287 298 196 230 206 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.7 30.0 29.4 29.5 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 147 145 148 148 149 153 154 154 164 170 159 160 157 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 144 142 143 141 139 141 138 136 144 148 136 136 130 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 52 50 52 52 53 55 55 56 60 60 61 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 22 15 -3 -15 -25 -41 -48 -68 -74 -64 -62 -63 -64 -47 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 46 35 46 31 33 7 28 -2 15 16 20 14 23 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 4 6 7 0 2 0 2 4 10 3 2 3 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 924 868 843 804 665 438 333 422 545 669 847 1066 1061 1070 997 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.3 23.8 25.3 27.0 28.9 30.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.1 55.5 56.8 58.1 59.4 61.8 64.1 65.9 67.0 67.5 67.5 66.9 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 13 11 10 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 36 46 50 46 45 62 66 58 30 39 33 23 24 28 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -0. 2. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 54.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.2% 7.4% 5.4% 4.8% 7.9% 7.6% 10.2% Logistic: 1.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 3.4% 2.5% 1.7% 3.0% 2.7% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 33 33 34 33 34 33 35 37 43 47 50 52 54 55 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 33 34 33 34 33 35 37 43 47 50 52 54 55 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 31 30 31 30 32 34 40 44 47 49 51 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 25 26 25 27 29 35 39 42 44 46 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT