* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 34 33 34 35 35 37 37 39 43 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 34 33 34 35 35 37 37 39 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 27 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 33 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 17 19 23 20 17 15 10 9 15 13 8 7 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 76 71 69 68 61 56 50 46 59 32 24 41 70 83 87 74 38 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 139 140 141 141 140 139 137 135 135 134 133 133 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 54 56 53 52 51 52 52 51 53 50 47 42 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 16 20 32 33 31 11 4 -13 -9 -20 -10 4 13 29 53 200 MB DIV 41 22 29 26 37 9 -15 -14 -2 17 21 -4 0 13 3 17 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2276 2311 2346 2377 2409 2378 2333 2302 2271 2244 2217 2196 2162 2132 2121 2111 2111 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.3 131.7 132.1 132.4 132.7 133.3 133.7 133.9 134.1 134.3 134.5 134.7 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 9. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 131.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 19.1% 12.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 8.3% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.5% 4.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##