* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 48 49 49 49 51 52 52 54 56 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 48 49 49 49 51 52 52 54 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 40 40 39 36 34 33 32 33 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 6 5 5 5 8 11 17 23 25 24 20 21 11 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 5 6 6 2 2 -1 1 -3 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 66 34 14 360 319 269 274 253 266 238 247 212 205 176 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 138 138 144 148 145 151 152 152 151 155 160 158 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 137 137 137 142 146 140 146 143 140 137 138 141 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 55 56 56 56 54 55 55 54 52 51 51 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 33 28 25 25 23 9 -15 -31 -49 -60 -73 -81 -90 -80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -21 -28 -5 -2 27 52 35 38 19 21 -5 -5 3 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -2 -2 5 6 11 4 5 3 4 1 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1078 1032 1001 995 993 968 856 782 525 359 384 533 646 802 984 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.4 16.7 18.0 19.2 20.4 21.8 23.3 24.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.3 48.5 49.7 50.9 53.4 55.9 58.3 60.8 63.1 64.9 66.2 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 34 23 18 19 46 41 54 41 46 69 43 30 33 30 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 21. 22. 22. 24. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 46.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.9% 9.3% 7.1% 6.5% 10.0% 11.3% 16.7% Logistic: 1.7% 5.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 3.1% 4.1% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 6.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 8.8% 5.0% 2.7% 2.3% 4.7% 5.2% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 48 49 49 49 51 52 52 54 56 59 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 38 44 47 48 48 48 50 51 51 53 55 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 40 43 44 44 44 46 47 47 49 51 54 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 32 35 36 36 36 38 39 39 41 43 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT