* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 50 54 54 54 55 57 57 59 58 61 66 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 50 35 39 39 40 41 42 43 42 34 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 43 45 33 35 32 31 31 31 33 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 5 9 12 25 26 20 21 22 21 21 25 29 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 1 5 11 3 4 5 2 -1 1 1 2 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 132 262 284 261 224 244 238 256 240 249 224 251 224 237 220 236 215 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.1 29.2 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.1 30.2 29.8 29.7 30.1 30.6 30.5 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 162 157 158 153 157 155 161 153 171 165 163 170 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 155 162 157 158 153 154 147 150 139 154 144 141 145 151 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 8 10 6 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 58 54 48 43 43 45 48 47 45 45 43 43 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 21 21 20 20 18 16 15 15 13 13 11 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 110 103 96 85 73 59 30 16 1 -21 -26 -26 8 11 28 35 25 200 MB DIV 64 50 39 46 76 63 35 17 -12 -4 19 5 24 26 27 21 16 700-850 TADV -8 4 13 6 2 18 23 13 -10 0 1 0 0 0 -1 4 3 LAND (KM) 471 456 482 280 122 0 -21 21 41 85 52 31 17 30 -46 -112 -122 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 18.4 19.7 21.0 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.9 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 60.3 62.2 64.0 65.9 69.4 72.6 75.4 77.7 79.6 81.0 82.0 82.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 19 19 19 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 51 46 86 57 53 36 48 62 44 53 67 48 36 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -15. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 19. 19. 20. 22. 22. 24. 23. 26. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 58.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.83 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 23.3% 12.3% 8.4% 8.3% 11.7% 13.4% 17.8% Logistic: 5.7% 15.8% 11.2% 2.0% 0.5% 1.6% 2.5% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.7% 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.4% 0.5% Consensus: 4.3% 13.3% 9.1% 3.5% 3.0% 4.8% 6.1% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 50 35 39 39 40 41 42 43 42 34 29 28 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 47 32 36 36 37 38 39 40 39 31 26 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 41 26 30 30 31 32 33 34 33 25 20 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 17 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT