* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 37 37 38 42 43 45 45 45 44 44 44 43 42 40 40 V (KT) LAND 40 37 37 37 38 42 43 45 45 45 44 44 44 43 42 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 32 31 30 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 24 19 17 16 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 -1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 194 207 217 212 200 169 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 146 146 145 149 150 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 38 39 39 42 47 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -56 -64 -73 -73 -76 -88 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 21 4 -8 5 -19 2 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 3 4 1 5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 810 1008 1207 1410 1613 2030 2443 2854 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.4 26.0 27.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 167.7 169.7 171.6 173.6 175.6 179.7 183.7 187.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 19 18 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 25 15 12 9 12 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 26. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.3 167.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 -2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 4.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##