* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 70 66 62 59 59 56 54 50 49 47 44 42 39 39 V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 70 66 62 59 59 56 54 50 49 47 44 42 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 73 69 62 57 55 55 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 25 23 21 23 23 24 20 14 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -3 0 4 4 2 0 -1 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 215 208 204 205 203 227 224 197 151 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 139 139 141 147 149 148 149 151 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 35 37 38 39 40 43 46 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 11 10 7 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -40 -36 -28 -45 -62 -70 -64 -69 -69 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 29 28 27 12 18 0 9 -11 30 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 11 7 2 4 6 2 1 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 54 169 330 503 680 1032 1405 1782 2160 2548 2924 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.6 161.3 163.0 164.8 166.5 170.0 173.7 177.4 181.1 184.9 188.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 15 10 13 26 18 15 15 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -21. -24. -25. -30. -31. -33. -36. -38. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.7 159.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 779.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##