* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 85 78 74 65 58 53 48 47 43 39 35 32 31 26 23 V (KT) LAND 95 90 85 78 74 65 58 53 48 47 43 39 35 33 31 27 23 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 77 71 63 57 52 49 46 44 41 38 36 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 12 15 20 23 24 24 22 26 32 29 25 22 25 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 3 2 1 4 7 4 3 3 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 201 225 206 205 212 212 208 214 223 211 198 209 225 261 254 303 330 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.4 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.2 27.8 27.7 28.3 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 119 121 122 129 137 136 138 141 144 148 144 143 149 142 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 50 47 44 40 39 38 40 40 43 44 48 49 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 17 18 16 15 14 13 14 12 11 9 8 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -8 -9 -4 -3 -1 -11 -17 -31 -30 -39 -37 -36 -42 -53 -66 200 MB DIV 17 15 2 13 19 7 11 13 4 11 28 11 -1 0 3 -11 29 700-850 TADV 0 6 8 7 4 7 -4 -3 4 4 -1 -1 -5 -6 -6 -1 0 LAND (KM) 946 769 596 440 297 110 14 98 436 792 1134 1442 1765 2110 2433 2744 2650 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.9 147.5 149.1 150.6 152.1 155.0 157.9 161.0 164.3 167.7 171.0 174.0 177.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 15 16 16 14 14 16 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 10 12 19 13 15 11 7 11 10 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -21. -30. -37. -42. -47. -48. -52. -56. -60. -63. -64. -69. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.2 145.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 726.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##