* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 56 60 64 65 68 69 71 69 71 74 76 79 82 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 56 60 64 65 68 69 71 69 71 74 76 79 82 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 52 54 58 60 61 61 61 61 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 8 12 10 12 13 15 9 15 6 14 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -1 -1 0 2 2 2 0 0 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 280 287 313 314 300 328 291 306 263 260 244 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 150 149 151 149 147 143 149 151 144 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 148 150 149 151 149 147 143 149 151 144 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 10 8 10 9 10 8 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 50 49 54 56 62 64 66 63 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 10 10 9 8 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 34 32 22 32 22 36 36 46 48 66 70 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 1 1 -13 13 19 42 54 39 48 26 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -6 -9 6 9 16 15 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 668 603 559 513 506 386 89 167 257 168 248 302 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.1 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.0 51.3 52.7 54.2 57.3 60.6 63.8 66.8 69.8 72.9 75.9 79.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 39 40 41 37 56 33 28 34 60 58 37 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 15. 18. 19. 21. 19. 21. 24. 26. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.7 48.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.0% 11.9% 9.3% 9.1% 14.1% 14.4% 18.6% Logistic: 5.3% 26.2% 21.0% 12.1% 7.5% 9.6% 7.4% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% Consensus: 3.9% 15.5% 11.1% 7.1% 5.6% 7.9% 7.4% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 54 56 60 64 65 68 69 71 69 71 74 76 79 82 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 54 58 62 63 66 67 69 67 69 72 74 77 80 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 54 58 59 62 63 65 63 65 68 70 73 76 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 46 50 51 54 55 57 55 57 60 62 65 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT