* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 80 87 96 95 89 77 65 56 48 41 37 34 30 28 V (KT) LAND 60 66 73 80 87 96 95 89 77 65 56 48 42 38 35 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 72 75 82 83 79 72 64 56 49 43 39 36 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 5 4 6 3 4 8 10 15 17 22 26 30 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 0 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 307 324 360 12 17 42 18 325 291 264 270 262 255 257 256 248 261 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.8 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.1 27.2 27.7 27.5 27.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 152 144 122 122 120 120 123 126 138 143 141 144 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 68 66 64 62 59 54 49 46 43 41 41 45 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 21 20 20 18 15 14 13 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 52 47 38 18 8 1 -7 -11 -10 -10 -3 -10 -13 -26 -25 200 MB DIV 58 60 72 86 39 16 13 3 17 2 -12 -6 0 -3 -10 11 15 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 0 3 4 2 2 2 0 8 5 0 -4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2285 2370 2445 2481 2329 1995 1654 1322 989 673 373 71 123 211 410 735 1088 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.1 14.4 15.7 16.8 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.9 130.2 131.4 132.7 134.0 136.8 139.7 142.6 145.6 148.5 151.3 154.2 157.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 20 26 19 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 23 16 11 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 58.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 27. 36. 35. 29. 17. 5. -4. -12. -19. -23. -26. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.6 128.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 12.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 12.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -10.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 13.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 11.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.5% 71.2% 60.0% 47.1% 40.9% 31.6% 19.0% 11.4% Logistic: 41.4% 63.0% 51.6% 40.9% 23.9% 19.7% 2.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 20.4% 53.9% 35.6% 26.2% 2.3% 7.4% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 30.8% 62.7% 49.1% 38.1% 22.4% 19.6% 7.4% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##