* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 57 63 69 73 77 78 79 80 82 85 88 93 94 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 57 63 69 73 77 78 79 80 82 85 88 93 94 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 53 57 65 71 76 81 84 84 83 82 84 86 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 7 10 7 9 5 11 7 13 8 9 13 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 2 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 29 15 335 334 322 332 282 302 291 328 266 286 221 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.5 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 142 146 148 147 147 151 154 149 152 148 146 154 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 142 146 148 147 147 151 154 149 152 148 146 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 54 53 56 59 60 61 62 62 61 59 58 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 26 23 21 21 20 28 24 42 41 49 48 57 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -18 -2 5 -18 -5 -4 16 32 33 21 22 9 8 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 -5 0 0 1 8 7 9 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1113 1019 933 850 770 625 547 485 232 167 292 288 281 267 207 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.2 13.2 14.3 15.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.1 45.3 46.5 47.8 50.3 52.9 55.7 59.0 62.5 65.7 68.6 71.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 15 17 17 16 16 16 17 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 36 38 35 31 39 36 41 47 37 38 67 61 59 58 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 29. 33. 37. 38. 39. 40. 42. 45. 48. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.9 43.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 30.1% 19.4% 13.1% 9.7% 18.6% 21.8% 30.3% Logistic: 14.3% 37.8% 38.2% 25.5% 9.4% 23.5% 15.6% 21.1% Bayesian: 2.9% 15.7% 15.5% 1.2% 0.9% 6.7% 1.9% 2.9% Consensus: 9.3% 27.8% 24.4% 13.2% 6.7% 16.3% 13.1% 18.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 53 57 63 69 73 77 78 79 80 82 85 88 93 94 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 57 63 67 71 72 73 74 76 79 82 87 88 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 50 56 60 64 65 66 67 69 72 75 80 81 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 40 46 50 54 55 56 57 59 62 65 70 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT