* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062020 07/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 22 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 36 38 41 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 22 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 36 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 5 6 8 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 0 2 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 356 328 322 305 277 264 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.1 26.1 25.8 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 143 137 137 127 124 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 69 68 69 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -15 -18 -22 -15 -6 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -2 9 36 41 23 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 4 7 4 5 14 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 792 883 987 1100 1229 1552 1838 2122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.5 16.1 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.9 117.4 119.1 120.8 124.3 127.6 130.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 8 5 3 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 114.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##