* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 62 60 53 47 39 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 62 60 53 47 39 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 58 54 46 39 33 28 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 3 6 10 11 12 11 11 9 12 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 58 60 62 58 47 1 262 279 265 263 273 311 318 325 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 25.8 24.6 24.1 23.0 23.0 22.4 22.7 22.4 22.6 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 122 110 105 93 93 87 90 87 89 96 99 104 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 71 70 66 62 57 53 51 49 43 40 34 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 25 25 23 21 18 17 14 12 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 47 43 42 72 65 71 70 54 48 33 26 6 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 19 45 29 10 18 -14 -10 -30 -4 -19 -39 -34 -22 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -6 -4 0 3 0 7 1 10 5 9 4 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 581 643 685 747 827 1010 1169 1341 1557 1781 1925 1876 1615 1344 1077 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.9 116.2 117.5 118.8 121.5 124.0 126.4 129.0 131.7 134.3 137.0 139.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -21. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. -0. -7. -13. -21. -28. -37. -44. -50. -53. -56. -57. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##