* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 41 51 56 58 57 58 56 58 62 60 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 34 43 49 50 50 34 29 27 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 32 35 35 34 33 28 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 10 12 13 10 17 13 9 8 9 11 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 9 0 7 0 2 -2 -1 0 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 300 269 247 237 212 229 216 241 269 263 223 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.5 30.1 28.8 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.0 27.2 26.8 26.4 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 148 133 129 130 124 127 122 118 136 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 170 168 159 136 121 116 116 110 111 106 102 115 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 11 7 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 69 62 56 47 41 44 49 54 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 23 25 29 29 25 21 19 16 18 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 104 119 112 104 113 119 80 23 27 18 77 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 122 133 140 104 74 70 16 0 31 18 49 76 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 7 11 10 5 13 3 3 -5 13 29 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -111 -59 -45 -16 64 248 434 215 7 -174 -405 -630 -865 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.6 23.3 25.2 27.2 29.3 31.4 33.7 36.0 38.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.2 90.1 90.2 90.3 90.4 90.4 90.6 91.2 92.0 92.0 91.1 90.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 28 27 29 13 10 20 5 3 1 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 11. 8. 2. -1. -5. -5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 26. 28. 27. 28. 26. 28. 32. 30. 28. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 90.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.82 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 13.0% 8.2% 4.9% 4.6% 8.0% 8.8% 15.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.6% 2.9% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 6.0% 3.3% 1.9% 1.6% 3.2% 4.0% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 34 43 49 50 50 34 29 27 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 34 43 49 50 50 34 29 27 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 32 41 47 48 48 32 27 25 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 35 41 42 42 26 21 19 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT