* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032020 06/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 37 38 43 49 54 62 68 70 68 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 37 38 43 49 54 62 68 70 68 63 60 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 40 43 48 54 59 60 57 55 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 6 7 7 9 9 12 7 13 16 18 12 12 20 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 3 6 5 4 0 4 2 3 4 0 3 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 251 275 289 289 325 327 334 310 285 268 245 231 214 196 232 233 265 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 157 158 158 157 157 158 157 148 136 131 131 126 122 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 136 139 140 139 137 138 141 141 133 123 118 116 110 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 81 80 78 78 76 77 76 74 70 65 58 53 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 16 17 14 13 13 14 16 21 25 26 24 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 67 64 79 93 86 95 104 127 118 144 144 166 145 130 77 70 -5 200 MB DIV 88 81 75 90 48 41 37 69 55 71 83 76 57 63 42 11 33 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 -5 -1 2 3 0 -1 0 0 7 5 2 3 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 107 100 89 69 51 21 13 13 29 78 165 152 255 449 273 119 -1 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.8 19.3 20.2 21.4 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.3 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.9 93.0 93.0 92.8 92.5 92.1 91.7 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 4 5 8 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 23 24 25 24 24 25 23 18 11 10 18 9 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. 2. 6. 7. 3. -2. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 13. 19. 24. 32. 38. 40. 38. 33. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 92.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.5% 10.9% 7.5% 6.9% 10.4% 11.4% 18.2% Logistic: 4.2% 43.8% 23.5% 14.6% 7.7% 24.9% 33.3% 65.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 19.0% Consensus: 3.4% 20.5% 11.5% 7.4% 4.9% 11.8% 15.0% 34.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 THREE 06/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 38 37 38 43 49 54 62 68 70 68 63 60 50 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 33 34 39 45 50 58 64 66 64 59 56 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 28 29 34 40 45 53 59 61 59 54 51 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 21 26 32 37 45 51 53 51 46 43 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT